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The multilateral trading system is widely perceived to be in crisis, undermined by geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade policies, and growing skepticism toward global cooperation. Yet this paper argues that such narratives are both overstated and insufficiently precise. While the system faces real and structural pressures, it continues to govern the majority of global trade and to deliver significant economic value. Drawing on economic theory and policy practice, the paper disentangles resilience from erosion. It shows that core mechanisms – non-discrimination, reciprocity, and binding commitments – still anchor global trade, even as negotiation, implementation, and dispute settlement have weakened. At the same time, new fault lines have emerged: unresolved development tensions, the rise of state-driven competition, sustainability-related regulation, and the rapid expansion of digital trade. Rather than calling for a wholesale reinvention, the paper outlines a pragmatic reform agenda focused on adapting rules and processes to contemporary realities. Central to this vision is a shift in political economy: with great powers less willing to underwrite cooperation, middle powers must assume a more active role in sustaining and renewing the system.
The multilateral trading system is widely perceived to be in crisis, undermined by geopolitical tensions, unilateral trade policies, and growing skepticism toward global cooperation. Yet this paper argues that such narratives are both overstated and insufficiently precise. While the system faces real and structural pressures, it continues to govern the majority of global trade and to deliver significant economic value. Drawing on economic theory and policy practice, the paper disentangles resilience from erosion. It shows that core mechanisms – non-discrimination, reciprocity, and binding commitments – still anchor global trade, even as negotiation, implementation, and dispute settlement have weakened. At the same time, new fault lines have emerged: unresolved development tensions, the rise of state-driven competition, sustainability-related regulation, and the rapid expansion of digital trade. Rather than calling for a wholesale reinvention, the paper outlines a pragmatic reform agenda focused on adapting rules and processes to contemporary realities. Central to this vision is a shift in political economy: with great powers less willing to underwrite cooperation, middle powers must assume a more active role in sustaining and renewing the system.

Ralph Ossa, who served as Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO) from January 2023 to June 2025, took up the UBS Foundation Professorship of Economics at the Department of Economics of the University of Zurich (UZH) as of July 1, 2025. Before joining the WTO, Ralph Ossa was already teaching and conducting research at UZH in the field of international economics, with a particular focus on policy-relevant questions. He was chairman of the Department of Economics from 2019 to 2022 and coeditor of the Journal of International Economics from 2016 to 2022. Prior to Zurich, he was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Ralph Ossa, who served as Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO) from January 2023 to June 2025, took up the UBS Foundation Professorship of Economics at the Department of Economics of the University of Zurich (UZH) as of July 1, 2025. Before joining the WTO, Ralph Ossa was already teaching and conducting research at UZH in the field of international economics, with a particular focus on policy-relevant questions. He was chairman of the Department of Economics from 2019 to 2022 and coeditor of the Journal of International Economics from 2016 to 2022. Prior to Zurich, he was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics.