Poverty, infant mortality, and other ills have decreased enormously over the past 30 years. But for how much longer? Swiss daily Tagesanzeiger asked 16 people from different scientific disciplines to outline big unresolved questions in their field and attempt to answer them. This is UBS Foundation Professor Dina Pomeranz' contribution.

This article by Dina Pomeranz was originally published in German in Swiss daily Tagesanzeiger on 22 July 2023. Translated and edited for layout purposes by the UBS Center.

In recent decades, poverty in the world has decreased very significantly. Never before in the history of mankind have the living conditions of the world's poorest people improved so strongly and so quickly. For example, global child mortality has halved, the proportion of malnourished children has fallen by a third, and the proportion of children not attending school has halved in the last thirty years.

Overall, extreme poverty has fallen by a staggering three-quarters, from 38 percent to 9 percent. Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than around 2 Swiss francs a day - adjusted for price differences.

The big question now is how long these positive trends will last and whether climate change will interrupt or even reverse them. Unfortunately, the areas where people most affected by poverty live are precisely those where the effects of climate change will be worst. This is despite the fact that rich countries cause the majority of CO₂ emissions.

The severity of the impacts depends on two factors: First, how quickly we can decarbonize our economy to slow climate change, and second, what the effects of climate change on poverty will be.

Both factors depend heavily on our actions and our political decisions. Much has already been said and written on the first topic in connection with the Swiss referendum on the Climate Act. Both price incentives on CO₂ emissions and subsidies on saving technologies can contribute to accelerating CO₂ reduction.

On the second topic, there are, on the one hand, scientific aspects (What exactly will the new climate be like? What is its impact on agriculture and other economic production?). On the other hand, there are also major economic questions about how effectively and how quickly people in the affected areas can adapt production methods and retool society, and how much we compensate the most affected people for the damage.

The world is rich enough to compensate the poorest and help them retool. The question is: Are we in the rich countries prepared to do our part? The current discussions about cutting rather than expanding development aid cast doubt on this.