We have never had it so good – and yet, according to Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr, the best may still be ahead of us. In the latest episode of Thought Supply, economic historian Mokyr sits down with Hans-Joachim Voth to discuss what centuries of technological change can teach us about artificial intelligence, economic growth, and the future of human progress.

Few economists are as optimistic about technological progress as Joel Mokyr. Looking back over his own lifetime, he sees extraordinary improvements almost everywhere: societies have grown richer, medicine has transformed survival rates, travel has become vastly safer, and technologies that once seemed unimaginable have become part of everyday life. And conventional measures of economic growth, he argues, capture only part of that progress. What is the value of anesthesia, better cancer treatment, safer cars, or decades of healthy retirement? Many of the improvements that fundamentally change human welfare are difficult to express in GDP.

For Mokyr, this long historical perspective matters because it changes how we think about the future. Economic growth on the scale we have experienced over the past two centuries is historically exceptional. But that does not mean that humanity is running out of ideas.

Science builds ladders

Mokyr has a memorable response to the argument that the “low-hanging fruit” of innovation has already been picked: “Science builds ladders.” Scientific discovery and technology, he argues, reinforce one another. New scientific knowledge makes new technologies possible, while new technologies give scientists better tools to understand the world. The telescope, microscope, thermometer, and vacuum pump helped propel the scientific revolution. Today, vastly more powerful instruments – including artificial intelligence – may allow researchers to detect patterns and solve problems that humans could not identify on their own.

Mokyr’s confidence in progress is deeply rooted in his work as an economic historian. His own path into the field was hardly planned. After leaving the Israeli military, he enrolled at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem intending to study history and chose economics almost by accident as his required second major. A position as a research assistant to economic historian Nahum Gross eventually led him to Yale and, later, Northwestern University, where he has spent virtually his entire academic career.

Over the decades, his research increasingly turned toward a fundamental question: Why did sustained economic growth emerge when and where it did? His answer places ideas and culture alongside institutions and technology. The Enlightenment helped create a belief that useful knowledge could improve material life and an environment in which innovation could flourish.

AI is different

Artificial intelligence could accelerate the feedback loop between science and technology even further. Mokyr points to fields such as protein biochemistry and materials science, where AI can already help researchers recognize patterns and solve problems. In this sense, AI is not making the world more mysterious. It is becoming a new tool for understanding it. But there is a crucial difference between AI and previous technological breakthroughs. A printing press, steam engine, or computer could be improved by humans. AI may eventually be capable of improving itself. Economic history, Mokyr readily admits, offers little guidance for what happens then because there is no historical precedent. The speed of change may pose a more immediate problem.

Technological progress has always produced winners and losers. What determines the severity of the disruption, Mokyr argues, is partly whether people have enough time to adapt. AI is advancing exceptionally fast. At the same time, it could also become part of the solution. In aging societies with shrinking workforces, labor-saving technologies may be exactly what economies need. And AI itself could make it easier for workers to acquire new skills. As Mokyr puts it, “AI may help us adapt to the consequences of AI.”

Progress is not guaranteed

This is where Mokyr’s optimism reaches its limits. He is highly confident in the potential of science and technology, but far less confident in institutions and politics. Innovation needs an environment in which ideas can be challenged, evidence matters, and researchers have the freedom to pursue new knowledge. Mokyr worries that growing populism and political pressure on universities could undermine precisely those conditions.

History again provides both warning and reassurance. Technological leadership has repeatedly shifted between countries. If one society closes itself off to innovation, another may take its place. For Mokyr, competition between countries may therefore help keep technological progress alive. Whether the next major breakthrough comes from the United States, Europe, or China ultimately matters less for humanity than whether it happens at all.

That distinction explains the guarded optimism that runs through the conversation. Mokyr has little doubt about humanity’s capacity to discover and invent. His doubts concern what humans choose to do with that capacity. Having watched living standards and technology transform during his own lifetime, he sees no compelling reason why progress should stop now. New frontiers – from AI to nuclear fusion and longevity research – are already coming into view. “We have never had it so good,” Mokyr concludes. “And yet I think the best is still to come.”