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with a plea to rebuild international structures of
cooperation, conflict prevention, and humanitarian
and development aid, stating that
The Economics of War and Peace
The first panel took on the forum’s main theme
"The Economics of War and Peace." German Am-
bassador Wolfgang Ischinger argued the nation state
is a failed institution no longer capable of providing
security and prosperity to its citizens. At the same
time, international peacekeeping and conflict resolu-
tion structures are anachronistic and reflect power
structures of the Cold War. Above all, the UN Secu-
rity Council must reflect modern geopolitical reali-
ties and include nations such as India and Brazil.
Professor Edward Miguel offered a statistical analy-
sis and found a remarkable correlation between
increases in temperature and conflict. Persistently
high temperatures also had a negative impact on
economic growth and agricultural productivity that
led to political instability. Miguel also pointed out
that the outbreak of civil war in Syria 2011 was
preceded by three years of heat waves and severe
drought, so that extreme weather conditions seem
to have been a contributing factor for the Arab
Spring. This connection between climate and con-
flict does not bode well for a future in which global
temperatures are projected to rise markedly. Such
adverse impacts are likely to affect already hot and
instable regions – particularly Africa – first. How-
ever, the economic impacts from global warming
may be felt far beyond such conflict zones, as one
Dialogue and Events
Forum for Economic Dialogue
Forum 2015 on "The Economics of
War and Peace"
After the devastating attacks in Paris, this
year’s UBS Center annual Forum for Econom-
ic Dialogue took on an unexpected and som-
ber significance. A packed auditorium in
Kaufleuten attended an event featuring a list
of famous keynote speakers and panelists,
including Nobel Peace Prize Winner Moham-
med ElBaradei, Federal Councillor and Swiss
Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter, and best-
selling author Steven Pinker.
On War and Peace
The headline keynote speaker Nobel Prize Winner
Mohammed ElBaradei opened this year’s forum
with a powerful and moving address. He argued the
world is facing a crisis of governance as faith and
confidence in global institutions crumble and na-
tions pursue their own interests often to the detri-
ment of others. He sees this as unsustainable, as we
live in an increasingly interconnected world, where
traditional notions of security and sovereignty are
being challenged. The solution he advocated for is a
global social contract based on inclusion and foster-
ing solidarity.
As for the ongoing crisis in the Middle East,
ElBaradei identified several underlying causes for
these conflicts, including the lack of democratic
culture, good institutions, and social cohesion. In
particular education will be key in making progress
on all those fronts. However, he also made clear
that no part of the world can be quarantined from
these conflicts any longer, and that the West has an
important role to play. He thus ended his address
Panel discussion with Wolfgang Ischinger, Livia Leu, Hans-Joachim
Voth, and Edward Miguel (f.l.t.r.)
"we either swim together, or sink
together."
Mohamed ElBaradei during his keynote lecture